Summer isn’t over yet, but the Twin Cities real estate market is already showing the first signs of its late-season shift. Prices are still climbing, but at a more measured pace than the frenzied years of the past decade. Inventory keeps building. And mortgage rates, while still elevated, have settled into a range buyers are starting to plan around rather than wait out. If you’re weighing a move this fall, here’s what the latest numbers say about where things actually stand right now.

Home Prices Are Still Rising — Just Not Like They Used To

The median sales price across the 16-county Twin Cities metro reached $410,000 in June 2026, the most recent full month of closed-sale data available, up 2.1% from a year earlier, according to Minneapolis Area Realtors® (MAAR) data pulled from NorthstarMLS. The average sales price came in at $492,008, up a more modest 0.8% year-over-year — a gap that suggests the priciest segment of the market is cooling faster than the entry- and mid-tier segments that make up most first-time buyer activity. Price per square foot climbed to $223, up 2.0% from last June. None of this points to a market losing steam; it points to one settling into a steadier, more sustainable rhythm after several years of sharper swings.

Inventory Keeps Climbing, and That’s Good News for Buyers

Buyers heading into late summer have more to choose from than they did a year ago. Active inventory stood at 10,897 homes at the end of June, up 5.1% year-over-year, while new listings jumped 10.5% to 7,268 for the month — the strongest new-listing growth of any month so far in 2026. Months of supply ticked up to 2.8, still short of the 5-to-6-month range that typically defines a balanced market, but the highest reading of this year. For buyers who’ve felt boxed out over the past few summers, this is the most breathing room the Twin Cities market has offered in a while.

Mortgage Rates Are Holding in the Mid-6% Range

According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.66% as of July 30, 2026, up slightly from 6.58% the week before but still below the 6.72% mark from a year earlier. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.04% over the same period. Rates have moved in a fairly narrow band throughout July — mostly between 6.4% and 6.7% — which has given buyers something they haven’t had in a while: a rate environment stable enough to actually plan around instead of trying to time.

Homes Are Taking a Little Longer to Sell — But Sellers Are Still Winning

The average Twin Cities home took 42 days to sell in June, up 7.7% from 39 days a year ago. That’s a real shift from the sub-three-week pace of peak pandemic-era competition, but it’s still a fast market by any historical measure. Sellers are also still getting close to full asking price: homes sold for 99.6% of original list price on average in June. Closed sales jumped 10.7% year-over-year to 5,602, and pending sales rose 9.7% — both signs that buyer demand hasn’t backed off even as homes take a bit longer to find the right offer.

What This Means as Fall Approaches

Taken together, the data points to a Twin Cities real estate market that’s neither cooling off nor overheating — it’s normalizing. Rising inventory and slightly longer days on market give buyers more leverage than they’ve had in years, while steady price growth and strong percent-of-list-price figures show sellers still have the upper hand in well-priced, well-located homes. As families finish out summer and back-to-school season kicks in, expect the usual late-summer slowdown in showing traffic, followed by a typical uptick in serious, motivated buyers this fall.

Whichever Side of the Table You’re On, Timing Matters

Numbers like these tell you what the market is doing overall, but every Twin Cities suburb and neighborhood is moving at its own pace right now. If you’re trying to figure out what late-summer conditions mean for your specific street, price point, or timeline, MinnMatch can match you with a local agent who knows exactly how your area is trending — no algorithm, just a real person who knows the Twin Cities market inside and out.